Mortgage applications slipped 1.2% in the week ending Oct. 30, 2026, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Refinance activity was 60% lower than a year earlier and purchase applications were down 19%, as the MBA's average 30-year rate held near 7.3%. Refinancing may still make sense for some borrowers, mainly those holding rates well above today's averages.
MBA: applications dip 1.2% as rates ease
The MBA's Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey, released Nov. 4, 2026, showed the Market Composite Index down 1.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending Oct. 30. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 2% and was 19% lower than the same week a year earlier. The Refinance Index edged up 0.1% but was 60% below last year's level.
The refinance share of all applications rose to 39.8% from 38.9%. FHA loans made up 16.0% of applications, down from 16.6%, while VA loans rose to 11.2% from 11.0%.
Rates in the MBA survey
MBA's average contract rate for a 30-year fixed conforming loan ($832,750 or less) fell to 7.30% from 7.37%, with 0.75 point. Other averages for the week:
- Jumbo 30-year fixed: 7.20%, down from 7.28%
- FHA 30-year fixed: 7.02%, down from 7.12%
- 15-year fixed: 6.76%, up from 6.70%
- 5/1 ARM: 6.29%, down from 6.41%
Why refinance volume collapsed from a year ago
A year ago, Freddie Mac's 30-year average was 6.22% (Nov. 6, 2025). With the average now at 7.18% (Nov. 5, 2026), fewer existing loans carry rates high enough for a new loan to pay off, which helps explain the steep drop. In the MBA's words, as quoted in Calculated Risk's summary, activity "is still quite slow."
Borrowers are adapting. MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni said "more borrowers are choosing ARMs in this environment to lower their initial payments." The ARM share of 11.4% is a sign that some buyers are trading long-term certainty for a lower starting rate.
Who may still benefit from refinancing now
Refinancing is mostly a math problem: the savings need to outweigh closing costs within the time you expect to keep the loan. With averages above 7%, the borrowers most likely to benefit are those with rates in the high 7s or above, such as people who closed near the October 2023 peak, when Freddie Mac's average hit 7.79% (Oct. 26, 2023, per FRED). On the same loan balance, a lower rate means a lower principal-and-interest payment; you can compare scenarios with the mortgage calculator.
Others who may gain include borrowers with improved credit since they bought, homeowners who want to drop FHA mortgage insurance by moving to a conventional loan, and veterans who may qualify for a VA streamline refinance. Homeowners who want cash but already hold a low first-mortgage rate may prefer a HELOC over a cash-out refinance.
What this means for Texas borrowers
Texas has its own rules for home equity borrowing. Cash-out refinances on a Texas homestead fall under Section 50(a)(6) of the Texas Constitution, which, among other requirements, caps total debt on the home at 80% of its fair market value, so ask your loan officer how the rules apply before comparing offers. Rate-and-term refinances follow standard program rules. Review options on our refinance page, and if you have an FHA or VA loan, see our FHA loan and VA loan guides.
Before applying, compare your current rate with today's averages, estimate your break-even with the rate calculator, and request Loan Estimates from more than one lender. Savings are never certain, and a lower payment from a longer term can raise total interest. A licensed loan officer can walk you through the trade-offs: find a loan officer.
Sources
- Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey, Mortgage Bankers Association (November 4, 2026)
- Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey; Down 19% Year-over-year, Calculated Risk (November 4, 2026)
- Texas Constitution, Article XVI (Section 50), Texas Legislature
- Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Freddie Mac (November 5, 2026)
- 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) (November 5, 2026)
This article is for general information about the mortgage market and is not financial, legal or tax advice. Figures come from the sources listed and may have changed since publication. Rates and averages cited are published market data, not an offer or HomyLoan rates. HomyLoan, LLC is a licensed mortgage broker, Company NMLS 2783307, not a lender. All loans are subject to credit approval and program guidelines. Equal Housing Opportunity.
